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Forecasting Xmas 2005
Hi, I forecast member call volume for a large pharmacy benefit management company in the US. We help administer pharmacy benefits (drug copays) and also dispense and deliver prescriptions through the mail.
Xmas in 2005 is being observed by most companies on Monday 12/26. The last time this happened was 1994, and we have no daily or weekly historical data for that year to build a forecast from.
Our concern is that everyone will most likely celebrate the holiday with their families on Sunday 12/25. They don't have to work Monday, but what will call volume be like?
What are others in other industries forecasting for that day?
(Historically, Xmas day is about 10% of a normal day for us. The day after Thanksgiving is 50% of normal volume.)
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